Bitcoin (BTC $26,436) is due to hit nearly $150,000 during its next four-year halving cycle, Pantera Capital believes.
In its latest “Blockchain Letter,” released on Aug. 22, executives at the crypto asset manager doubled down on their bullish BTC price forecasts for 2024 and beyond.
Halving data reinforces November 2022 BTC price bottom
Bitcoin price performance depends heavily on its halving cycles, Pantera Capital argues, and with the next due within the coming twelve months, the firm is betting that historical trends will continue.
BTC/USD, it notes, tends to put in a cycle bottom and top roughly equal lengths of time from each block subsidy halving, which cuts the number of Bitcoin paid to miners per block by 50%.
“Bitcoin has historically bottomed 477 days prior to the halving, climbed leading into it, and then exploded to the upside afterward,” it wrote.
The post-halving rallies have averaged 480 days – from the halving to the peak of that next bull cycle.
That same theory suggests that the 2022 bear market bottom marked the current BTC price cycle bottom.
“IF history were to repeat itself, the price of bitcoin should have troughed December 30, 2022,” Pantera continued.
Looking forward, by the halving date in April 2024, BTC/USD could be trading at around $35,000 — something that it is still on track to accomplish.
However, what happens in the 480 days afterward involves not only a new all-time high but much more.
“The 2016 halving decreased the supply of new bitcoins only one-third as much as the first. Interestingly, it had exactly one-third the price impact. The 2020 halving reduced the supply of new bitcoins by 43% relative to the previous halving. It had a 23% as big an impact on price,” Pantera stated.
The next halving is expected to occur on April 20, 2024. Since most bitcoins are now in circulation, each halving will be almost exactly half as big a reduction in new supply. If history were to repeat itself, the next halving would see bitcoin rising to $35k before the halving and $148k after.
480 days from an April 2024 halving makes Bitcoin scheduled to hit its next all-time high by July 2025.
Bitcoin halving characteristics (screenshot). Source: Pantera Capital
Bitcoin bulls can expect 4.2x gains
Pantera is far from alone in predicting six-figure BTC price highs beyond next year.
Among the optimistic forecasts include those based on Bitcoin’s so-called “Lowest Price Forward” metric, which this month showed BTC/USD passing the $100,000 mark by 2026.
Others also believe that $100,000 is possible, but not before next year’s halving.
BTC/USD performance around halvings (screenshot). Source: Pantera Capital
Source: FX STREET