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Bitcoin at $25K: Discount or disaster?


In the latest episode of The Market Report, Cointelegraph analyst Marcel Pechman delves into Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest bounce at $25,000, which some analysts and influencers argue represents a short-term buying opportunity. Pechman explains that Bitcoin’s inverse correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index has only held for 40% of the previous 20 months, meaning it is likely not a good metric to anticipate price movements.

The show then shifts focus to a recent Glassnode report revealing that the amount of BTC changing hands is at its lowest since October 2020, citing investors’ “apathy” and “exhaustion.” Pechman argues that bulls got tired after the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s relentless action to pursue Coinbase and Binance. Ultimately, Pechman disagrees that Bitcoin’s recent movement to $25,000 presents an opportunity for buyers, given that the short-term risk-reward ratio near the current price level is around 50:50.

For the show’s next segment, Pechman analyzes the prediction made by Davis Hui, vice president of Bitcoin miner Canaan, that BTC will hit $100,000 in 2024 based on the halving and a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval. First, Pechman explains that BlackRock’s $10 trillion in assets is merely a mirage, as 55% is stuck in fixed-income investments and $2.8 trillion is already invested in other ETFs such as commodities, the S&P 500 index, global emerging markets and alternative investments.

Furthermore, Pechman raises the risk of current holders deciding to flip their positions previously bought at $60,000, $50,000 or even $40,000 if Bitcoin’s price were to shoot up, meaning the offer side is never predictable regardless of miners’ incentives. Lastly, Pechman explains that a spot Bitcoin ETF has been a dream for the past eight years, and nothing has changed to refute the SEC’s reasons for dismissal, namely stablecoin trading volumes and unregulated offshore exchanges.

Check out the latest episode of The Market Report, available exclusively on the Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel.

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