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Wen moon? Bitcoin halving cycle hints at Q4 as smart money ‘buys the rumor’


Bitcoin (BTC) is “much more likely” to stay rangebound until at least Q4, 2023, according to longtime market participant Filbfilb.

In an X thread on Aug. 25, the popular analyst and co-founder of trading suite Decentrader told readers to expect flat BTC price action into year end.

Filbfilb: BTC price approaching “critical time”

Bitcoin may be disappointing bulls after its 70% Q1 gains, but for Filbfilb, there is little about BTC price action this halving cycle that is different to its previous ones.

“Bitcoin is 1200 days since the previous halving. During this period, Bitcoin has historically consolidated,” he explained.

Uploading various comparative charts, Filbfilb predicted that miners should begin to bid price higher into the Bitcoin halving — with this occurring around 1,276 days after each prior halving.

“Miners are incentivized to ensure that prices are well above marginal cost prior to the halving. Whether they collude consciously, or not they are collectively incentivized to send prices higher before their marginal revenue is effectively halved,” he wrote, also adding that smart money interested in “buying the rumor” around the halving’s potential positive BTC price impact had also buoyed the market in previous years.

1,276 from the 2020 halving gives early November as a potential deadline for such behavior to show itself.

“From a timing perspective Q4 seems like a critical time for BTC where we are likely to see supply constricted and new money driven by speculation,” Filbfilb forecast.

“Until then, it would be unusual for Bitcoin to break up, much more likely to consolidate.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Filbfilb/X

Macro risk to Bitcoin stays “elephant in the room”

Between now and then, however, various curve balls may lie in wait for Bitcoin, not least of which is United States macroeconomic policy.

Related: Bitcoin could be worth less than $20K in 2023, US inflation data says

The September meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which will decide benchmark interest rates, is of particular interest to risk asset bulls.

Filbfilb described the macro aspect as being “clearly the elephant in the room.”

“If that can remain steady, then I believe the game theory will play out and Bitcoin will convincingly break $30k before the 2023 year-end,” he wrote.

Should a more bearish scenario enter and Bitcoin return to $20,000, the current 2023 local high of $31,800 may remain in force.

“I would suggest that if that happens and is for anything other than for a very short time period, then the pre-halving pump may only take us to the 2023 highs already seen and breaking it would come later,” he concluded.

Potential BTC/USD scenarios. Source: Filbfilb/X

As Cointelegraph reported, other analysts are also counting the days between halvings, with varying BTC price predictions coming as a result.

Asset managed Pantera Capital this week delivered a $35,000 target for the next halving and $148,000 for after the 2024 event, while another recent prediction stated that $100,000 would under no circumstances come before it.

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